There is no single right answer to buy now versus wait, but there is a wrong way to decide: guessing at future rates. The better approach is to model what you actually know, today's price, today's rate, and a rent-while-you-wait cost, against a range of "what if rates drop" scenarios, and see which path holds up. Below is that model, plus a calculator so you can run your own numbers instead of a generic example.
Why this question is loud right now
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point on September 16, its first increase since 2023, and mortgage rates responded immediately. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed average at 6.95% for the week of September 17, a 19-month high, with several lenders' daily averages already running into the low 7% range. At the same time, Redfin's August data showed San Diego County pending home sales down 13% year over year and new listings roughly flat, a combination that suggests buyers are pulling back on urgency even as sellers are not flooding the market either. That tension, rates up, buyer enthusiasm down, inventory still tight, is exactly what makes "should I just wait" feel like a reasonable question. It is. It just needs real numbers, not a guess.
What "waiting" actually costs
Waiting is not free. Three things happen while you wait:
You keep paying rent, or you keep paying nothing toward equity if you are living elsewhere.
The home you want may or may not appreciate in price, and San Diego's constrained inventory has historically supported prices even when demand softens.
Rates may or may not move in your favor. The Fed's own projections after the September hike pointed to the possibility of one more increase before year end, which is not the setup most "wait it out" plans assume.
Model your own scenario
Rather than take a generic example, use the calculator below with your actual target price, your actual timeline, and a rate assumption you choose for the "wait" path. Try a few versions: rates flat, rates down half a point, rates up a quarter point, and see how the verdict changes.
Buy Now, or Wait for Rates to Move?
A side-by-side of buying today vs. waiting, based on the assumptions you set below. This is not a rate prediction.
Buy now
$5,296
Estimated monthly principal & interest at today's price and rate.
Wait it out
$5,170
At $1,022,417 and 6.50% after 9 months.
This tool compares two hypothetical paths you control the assumptions for. It does not forecast where mortgage rates or San Diego prices are actually headed. None of this is a guarantee of future rates, prices, or loan approval, so model a few scenarios, then talk to a loan officer about what you specifically qualify for.
Send me your numbers, and I'll model 3 purchase pathsThe buy-now-and-refinance-later path
A middle option many buyers overlook: buy at today's rate, and if rates genuinely drop later, refinance. This locks in today's price in a market where inventory remains limited, starts your equity clock now, and keeps the door open to a lower payment later. The cost is the refinance itself, typically a few thousand dollars in closing costs, plus the paperwork. It is not free optionality, but it is often cheaper than months of rent plus the risk that prices climb faster than rates fall. Run this path in the calculator to see your specific break-even point.
What the local data actually supports
San Diego is not one market. Redfin's rolling data shows homes in Santee moving in about 21 days and Chula Vista in about 24, while Coronado averages 48 days and Imperial Beach 41. C.A.R.'s county-level detached-home figures put the median days on market at 19 with about 3.1 months of unsold inventory, a level that still favors sellers on well-priced homes even as buyers gain some room elsewhere. Meanwhile, 22.3% of active San Diego County listings carried a price reduction as of the latest data, even though the typical closed sale still achieved 99.2% of asking price. Read together: broad "wait for a crash" thinking does not match what is happening on the ground, but selective negotiating room clearly exists on homes that have sat.
Frequently asked questions
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
No one can say with certainty. The Fed raised rates in September, its first increase since 2023, and its own updated projections leave room for another increase before year end. Treat any rate forecast, including an implied one, as a scenario to plan around rather than a fact.
Is it better to buy now and refinance later?
It can be, if rates do eventually drop, because you lock in today's price and start building equity now, with the option to refinance later for a cost that is usually a few thousand dollars. The tradeoff is that refinancing is not guaranteed on any particular timeline, so the decision should not lean entirely on an assumed future rate.
How much does waiting to buy a house actually cost?
It depends on rent paid during the wait, any price appreciation on the target home, and whether the rate actually improves enough to offset both. Model your own numbers instead of relying on a national average, since San Diego's price and rate dynamics do not always track national trends.
Is San Diego a buyer's market right now?
It is mixed. Inventory is limited and well-priced homes still move quickly in many neighborhoods, but pending sales were down double digits year over year in August, and a meaningful share of active listings carry price reductions, which gives prepared buyers more room to negotiate than the headline market suggests.
What should I do if the numbers are close either way?
Talk it through with a loan officer and with us before deciding on rate alone. Timeline, job stability, and how long you plan to stay in the home usually matter more than a fraction of a point once the numbers are this close.
Next step
Send your target price, down payment, and preferred neighborhoods, and we will model three purchase paths side by side, buy now, buy now and refinance later, and wait, using your actual numbers instead of assumptions.